Posted: 22nd October 2024

Ealing Property Market: Where are the Cash Buyers?

Ealing Property Market: Where are the Cash Buyers?

Ealing Property Market:Where are the Cash Buyers?

The UK property market has undergone significant shifts since the summer of 2020, driven primarily by the post lockdown race between the summer of 2020 and late 2021, and then a rapid series of interest rate hikes aimed at curbing inflation in 2022 and 2023. These changes have had far-reaching implications across the property market, influencing both prices and transaction volumes.

As we explore the nuances of these facts, it has become evident that while some anticipated trends (the property market was supposed to crash in Covid and again on the interest rate rises), this did not fully materialise. In fact, the property market has shown remarkable resilience under pressure.

The Interest Rate Surge and Its Impact

The initial wave of interest rate hikes began in November 2021, as the Bank of England sought to counter rising inflation, a process that continued until the summer of 2023. Over this period, interest rates were raised 14 times, culminating in a peak rate of 5.25%. The Bank of England's decision to implement such a rigorous monetary policy stemmed from concerns about the rapidly escalating cost of living, a consequence of both domestic and global economic pressures, including the significant disruption caused by Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

However, the interest rate tide began to turn in August 2024 when the Bank cut rates slightly, to 5%, in response to improving inflation figures. This reduction, coupled with signs that further cuts could be on the horizon, has brought a sense of cautious optimism to the market. For the first time in many months, there is a glimmer of hope that the worst of the economic storm may be behind us.

So, let us look at house prices locally over the last 4 years.

Local Property Market House Prices in Ealing Between 2020 and 2024

The average value of a property in Ealing in July 2020, was £473,622. Today, according to the Land Registry, that now stands at £535,734, a rise of 13.11%. So, house prices in the Ealing area as a whole haven’t dropped, despite the two predictions they would. So surely, it must be cash buyers that kept the Ealing property market afloat, considering the huge increases in interest rates?

Cash Buyers: Not the Game-Changer We Expected

In analysing the performance of different segments of the British property market during this tumultuous period, one of the more surprising findings is the limited role that cash buyers have played. Traditionally, cash buyers are perceived as having a significant advantage in a high-interest-rate environment. Without the need for financing, they are insulated from the direct effects of rising borrowing costs, which should, in theory, allow them to dominate the market when mortgage rates soar. So, did the number of cash buyers rise when interest rates began to rise in 2022?

The proportion of UK home buyers with cash has indeed risen from the late 20%’s in 2020/21 to the early 30%’s in 2023/24.

As you can see it increased, yet it wasn’t an avalanche. Despite their financial advantages, cash buyers did not dramatically alter the dynamics of the market. Instead, the pace of the market continued to be set by those who rely on mortgages, even as the cost of borrowing increased substantially. This trend underscores the critical role that mortgaged buyers play in shaping market conditions.

Looking locally in Ealing:

  • In 2020, 27.57% of UK home buyers were cash buyers, whilst in Ealing, 18.2% of buyers were cash buyers.
  • In 2021, 28.06% of UK home buyers were cash buyers, whilst in Ealing, 17.0% of buyers were cash buyers.
  • In 2022, 27.79% of UK home buyers were cash buyers, whilst in Ealing, 17.5% of buyers were cash buyers.
  • In 2023, 32.94% of UK home buyers were cash buyers, whilst in Ealing, 22.6% of buyers were cash buyers.
  • In 2024 YTD, 31.15% of UK home buyers were cash buyers, whilst in Ealing, 25.3% of buyers were cash buyers.

Locally in Ealing, we also saw a growth in cash buyers – yet again, nothing groundbreaking!

Mortgage Stress-Testing and Market Stability

So why were the doom mongers wrong about the property market crashing due to the vast increase in mortgage rates? This was down to the effectiveness of the Mortgage Market Review stress-testing rules introduced in 2014 for borrowers after the global financial crisis of 2008. These rules, designed to ensure that borrowers could withstand higher interest rates, have been instrumental in maintaining stability in the property market. Even as mortgage rates more than quadrupled from their lows, over three quarters of UK’s local authorities saw house prices increase between the spring of 2022 and the spring of 2024.

This stability is further evidenced by the relatively low levels of repossessions compared to the aftermath of the global financial crisis. In the 4 years after the global financial crash (2008 to 2011 inclusive), 113,374 UK were repossessed. In the Covid years of 2020 to 2023 inclusive, that number was 7,379 UK households.

Strong wage growth (average UK wages have risen from £31,487pa in 2020 to £35,828pa) and lender forbearance has also played vital roles in supporting borrowers during this challenging period.

These factors have collectively prevented the kind of widespread distress that many feared would occur as rates climbed.

Affordability and the Shift in Buyer Preferences

While house prices have remained robust in most areas, affordability has continued to be a significant concern for buyers, particularly in more expensive urban markets such as London. The pandemic-induced ‘race for space’ accelerated a trend where financially constrained buyers sought more affordable properties outside major cities. This migration from urban centres to more suburban or rural locations has been a defining characteristic of the property market over the past few years, and it appears to have gained further momentum as rates rose.

In more expensive locations, where the cost of living and property prices were already high, the increase in mortgage rates has made buying a home even more challenging for many. As a result, these areas have seen a shift in buyer demographics, with those less affected by higher rates—such as wealthier individuals or those moving from more affordable regions—continuing to purchase, while others have been priced out.

Sales Volumes vs. Prices: A Complex Relationship

As we evaluate the overall performance of the UK housing market, it's evident that while property prices have remained relatively strong, sales volumes did see a decline in 2023 compared to the surge witnessed in 2021. In 2021, transactions peaked at approximately 1.4 million, a significant increase compared to previous years. However, by 2023, this figure had decreased to around 1.02 million.

Despite the rise in interest rates during 2023, its transaction levels were consistent with long-term trends (there were an average 1.06 million transactions per year between 2008 and 2019). This stability highlights the resilience of the housing market. 2024 projections suggest that transactions may reach approximately 1.15 million, indicating a stable property market that continues to align closely with historical norms, even amid current economic conditions.

The persistence of strong prices, despite lower transaction volumes, suggests a degree of pent-up demand. If Ealing buyers perceive that interest rates have stabilised or are beginning to decline, we could see a significant increase in transaction activity. This potential recovery is likely to be most pronounced in regions where affordability remains a key factor, and where the desire for more space continues to drive buyer behaviour.

Looking Ahead: A Pivotal Moment for the Ealing Market

As we move forward, the UK property market appears to be at a crucial juncture. It is showing encouraging signs as we move through the latter half of 2024. With listings up by 7.2% year-to-date compared to pre-pandemic averages and gross sales 22% higher than the same time in 2023, the market is demonstrating resilience. Net sales have also surged, with a 28% increase compared to the same period last year, reflecting strong buyer activity. Additionally, the slight 2.6% rise in sale prices per square foot from January to July 2024 indicates a steady demand for property. These positive trends suggest a robust market outlook as we progress through the year.

Coupled with the recent rate cut, and better-than-expected inflation figures, this may signal the beginning of a more stable period. If financial markets are correct in predicting further rate cuts by the end of the year, we could see renewed confidence among buyers, leading to a more robust recovery in sales volumes.

However, it’s essential to recognise that the landscape has changed. The experience of the past four years has reinforced the importance of affordability, the resilience of stress-tested borrowers, and the critical role of mortgage buyers in setting market dynamics. As estate agents, understanding these shifts is crucial in navigating the evolving market and advising clients effectively.

As an Ealing homeowner looking to sell, it's crucial to approach the market with a realistic mindset. With only 53% of properties that come onto the market successfully reaching a completed house sale and move, the odds of selling can feel like a flip of a coin, (12 months to 23rd August 2024, of the 1,420,486 homes that left UK estate agents books, 798,886 homes exchanged and completed, and 710,620 homes withdrew unsold).

To ensure you're on the right side of that coin, it's vital to set a competitive price and present your property in the best possible light as this can significantly increase your chances of securing a sale and achieving your moving goals.

In Ealing and similar towns and cities, where affordability and the search for space are particularly relevant, the insights gained from this period of upheaval will be invaluable. By staying attuned to these trends and anticipating the needs of our Ealing clients, we can offer informed guidance in a time of change.

In conclusion, while the past four years have been challenging for the Ealing and UK property market, they have also demonstrated its underlying strength and adaptability. As we potentially enter a more stable period, there is cause for cautious optimism. By understanding the factors that have shaped recent performance, we can better navigate the road ahead and continue to support our clients through whatever challenges and opportunities the future may hold.

If you would like to discuss anything about the Ealing property market, please not hesitate to call us at the office.

Author Homesearch

Looking to buy?

Looking to buy?

We'd love to help you on your journey home.
Don't miss out on on the latest properties by registering for our property alerts.

Register with us today

Read What Our
Customers Say

I can't speak more highly of the team at Homesearch. When I met Michael to discuss the sale of my home instantly from that meeting, I could tell how knowledgeable they were. From that moment until closing, everything went absolutely flawless. This experience of selling went without a hitch with them giving great tips on preparing my home for viewings. Thank you. I really appreciate all your help during this process. I highly recommend Homesearch to any person who is looking to sell their home or buy a new home.

Loretta Barrett, Seller

I started with two very well known real estates, but I hated it. I was simply another number to them and I didn't feel they were honest and transparent. With HomeSearch I felt comfortable that they were on my side and they were always available to help. The process is hard enough, so having a team who supports you can make such a difference. Highly recommend.

Arian Barvarz, Seller

The reason we chose Homesearch to sell our property was that we liked the straightforward, no-nonsense approach of both Anna and Michael. They gave an honest appraisal of our property and a clear idea of what we could expect to sell it for. In fact, the offer we accepted exceeded our expectations. The sale took longer than we would have liked, due to delays caused by the buyers' solicitor, but Michael was tenacious and must have worn his phone out keeping everyone informed of progress.

Nicola Watson, Seller

Homesearch are hands down the best agent I have ever worked with ! The team helped me in an extremely complex sale. Without the knowledge and experience of the whole team, my sale would not have completed. I dont normally write reviews, only when they are truly deserved. An exceptional team! Very kind and personable, reliable & trustworthy.

Leslie John, Seller

My experience with Homesearch is that they are professional, friendly and go above and beyond to ensure that something stressful like selling a house runs as smoothly and stress free as possible. They work hard to get the results and have kept me updated throughout the process. I honestly could not recommend them enough, they are easily the best company I’ve dealt with in the buying/selling houses field. And to top it all off, they always answer the phone in the most pleasant tone and always provide service with a smile.

Chanelle Hunte, Seller

Homesearch are PROFESSIONALS. I sold my property through Homesearch and I have not dealt with a more competent agency. Every single person  dealt with knew exactly what they were talking about and I can tell that they all have knowledge in the industry and were not just picked up from the street. From the get go I was impressed and I will certainly do business with them again.

Paul Hobbs, Seller

Many thanks Homesearch for locating professional corporate tenants for my property. I am very happy with your property management service as you always ensure that the tenants give the property back in good order at check out. Five Stars!

Maria Foran, Landlord

I have been absolutely delighted with the exceptional service I have received from Homesearch. They have removed all the stress & hassle of renting my property and dealt with all manner of situations I would have struggled with in such a professional & courteous manner. They give valuable unbiased advice with such a wealth of experience. Nothing is ever too much trouble for the staff, who are always friendly & helpful. Homesearch let and managed my property and I am very happy with their property management services, they are very knowledgeable.

Paula Carter, Landlord

Homesearch always do what they say they will do. They are efficient and raise any issues early and provide options to resolve them. Homesearch is very  easy to get hold of and talk to, no matter where I am in the world! My property is well looked after, regarding tradesmen, replacement of items swiftly etc. with the minimum of fuss.

David Connells, Landlord

From our first viewing right through to the present, Home Search were brilliant. They helped make the whole process quick and stress free and even now we are in and settled, they are still happy to assist us with any queries we may have. We couldn't recommend them highly enough.

Julie Maney

Home Search helped us move into our new flat smoothly and Tim was always happy to provide help to put our nerves at ease. Arranging a viewing was easy and Home Search were happy to open after hours for us to sign the paperwork. They were very helpful and often would offer to help! Having moved in we received a lovely card and they have always been swift in communicating with Usif we have any questions. Would recommend it.

Will Houghton

Michael and his team were simply amazing!! They helped us to find the perfect house, offering a nice and attentive service from the beginning through to the end. Thank you so much!! 5 stars service. Highly recommended!!!

Giordana Sicali

Very helpful and friendly staff. Tim, Michael and the team Made the whole renting experience easier.

Amol Sinare

I had a very difficult situation as I did not have a guarantor and my dad was earning enough but was not a homeowner. It took a about 3 weeks but Michael sorted it all out in the end and my dad became my guarantor. I got a lovely home and all the staff were very helpful including Paris, Zainab and Tim. Thank you all very much! Would recommend them to anyone

Misti Chakraborty

On behalf of myself, Noa & Niamh, we would like to start off by saying a massive thank you for the amazing service Home Search Ltd provided us with, especially highlighting the work of Clorissa. Within a week we were able to sign, seal and move into the property that we looked at, all down to Clorissa's prompt and effective work ethic, which allowed us a smooth transition from one property to another, without her, this move would not of been possible to have happened within the time stamp that it did. We are very grateful for the work that was done by Home Search Ltd, highly recommend.

Lewis Francis
How Much is Your Property Worth?

Expert Valuation

We always come armed with evidence and statistics of why we are pricing your property a certain way. We know the importance of getting the initial price of your property right, first time. With our extensive experience we will also explain current market conditions as we want to get our sellers the best price.

What's more, get a free gift with your free expert valuation with one of our experienced Valuer's.

Book a Valuation